November 2025 FX Forecasts, FX Performance & FX Outlook
Stay ahead of currency markets with MTFX’s US Dollar latest Monthly Forecast for 2025. This page delivers expert analysis on USD performance, including exchange rate trends, economic drivers, and directional outlooks for major currency pairs like USD/CAD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. Access dynamic tables, FX projections, and economic event calendars to guide your international transfers, and global payment planning. Whether you're a business or individual, use MTFX tools to make smarter foreign exchange decisions.
November 2025 Global FX Performance
| Currency Pair | Nov 09, 2025 | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Yearly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.41 | -0.31% | 0.03% | 0.63% |
| EUR / USD | 1.16 | 0.43% | -0.43% | 8.60% |
| GBP / USD | 1.32 | 0.19% | -1.46% | 2.30% |
| USD / JPY | 153.79 | -0.15% | 1.86% | 0.18% |
| USD / CHF | 0.81 | -0.33% | 0.76% | -8.54% |
| USD / CNY | 7.12 | -0.04% | -0.24% | -1.34% |
| USD / INR | 88.67 | -0.06% | -0.10% | 5.08% |
| AUD / USD | 0.65 | -0.09% | 0.93% | -0.64% |
| NZD / USD | 0.56 | -1.21% | -1.47% | -5.45% |
| USD / MXN | 18.45 | -0.46% | -0.99% | -9.46% |
November 2025 Global FX Forecasts
| Currency Pair | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| EUR / USD | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| GBP / USD | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.39 |
| USD / JPY | 154.00 | 150.00 | 148.00 | 145.00 |
| USD / CHF | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| USD / CNY | 7.11 | 7.00 | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| USD / INR | 88.70 | 87.50 | 87.00 | 86.00 |
| AUD / USD | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| NZD / USD | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| USD / MXN | 18.53 | 18.25 | 18.50 | 18.75 |
November 2025 FX Highlights & Monthly Ranges
| Currency | Market News | |
|---|---|---|
CAD | Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Oil in the low US $60s is supportive but not strongly bullish for Canada. The bigger driver is the narrowing policy gap because markets now see the BoC and Fed cutting rates in a similar window into 2026. That reduces USD carry advantage. Positioning is not stretched so CAD can still firm on dips especially if U.S. fiscal headlines worsen and weigh on the dollar. CAD remains a steady relative value winner in a softer USD environment. Bias:↑ CAD mildly bullish Nov 2025 USD/CAD Monthly Range: 1.39-1.43 | |
EUR | Euro (EUR/USD) The euro benefits as the USD premium fades. Inflation in Europe is sticky but not unmanageable which means the ECB does not have to chase the Fed. Europe is not booming but the worst downside risk is already priced out. As U.S. yields compress the valuation room opens for EUR to grind higher. Even small U.S. data moderation can help EUR continue rising inside this channel. Bias:↑ Bullish Nov 2025 EUR/USD Monthly Range: 1.14 – 1.18 | |
GBP | British Pound (GBP/USD) GBP upside is capped by weak UK growth but it still outperforms USD because the BoE is not rushing to cut. UK inflation is still sticky enough to keep the BoE cautious. Fiscal tone into year end is GBP supportive compared to the U.S. fiscal environment. If the Fed turns more dovish mid month GBP could test the upper band but macro ceilings remain. Bias:↔ Neutral to Mildly Bullish Nov 2025 GBP/USD Monthly Range: 1.30 – 1.34 | |
JPY | Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Japan continues gradual BOJ policy normalization and that tilts rate differentials away from USD. Any U.S. fiscal or risk sentiment deterioration supports JPY as a safe haven. USD valuation also weakens as long end U.S. yields move lower. This creates room for JPY to gain on risk dips even without a major shock. Bias:↑ Bullish Nov 2025 USD/JPY Monthly Range: 151.50 – 155.80 | |
CNY | Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) CNY stays within a controlled channel as the PBOC sets clear guardrails to limit speculation. USD still drives the pair more than domestic China data. As the Fed easing story strengthens USD weakens and CNY benefits passively. Outflows remain contained so depreciation pressure is modest. Bias:↔ USD Mildly Bearish / CNY Stable Nov 2025 USD/CNY Monthly Range: 7.08 – 7.16 | |
INR | Indian Rupee (USD/INR) INR stays one of the most stable EM currencies because the RBI continues to actively manage the curve and liquidity. Growth in India remains solid and inflation is not disorderly. Lower U.S. yields reduce portfolio preference for USD. Expect a low volatility sideways profile rather than a breakout. Bias:↔ Stable Nov 2025 USD/INR Monthly Range: 88.00 – 89.20 | |
AUD | Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Commodity tone is moderately constructive and China data is less negative which supports AUD. Fed easing expectations also help high beta FX. Domestic data is steady enough that the RBA is not forced into aggressive cuts. If USD softness continues AUD can remain a leader in G10 commodity FX for November. Bias:↔ Constructive Nov 2025 AUD/USD Monthly Range: 0.64 – 0.67 | |
NZD | New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) NZD follows AUD momentum but also gets support from the view that the RBNZ may ease slower given broader inflation stickiness. NZD carry remains attractive even after adjusting for volatility. Positioning is cleaner than AUD which means NZD can move faster when USD dips. Bias:↔ Constructive Nov 2025 NZD/USD Monthly Range: 0.55 – 0.58 | |
MXN | Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) MXN remains a high carry outperformer. Mexico’s policy stance is still restrictive which protects yield spreads vs USD. Domestic macro remains resilient and inflation trends are manageable. Dip buyers stay active especially when USD softens. Bias:↑ Mildly Bullish Nov 2025 USD/MXN Monthly Range: 18.20 – 18.80 | |
What Economic Data to Watch This Month
| Currency | Date | Event |
|---|---|---|
| USD | Nov 12, 2025 | Inflation Rate |
| USD | Nov 16, 2025 | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
| USD | Nov 18, 2025 | Building Permits |
| USD | Nov 19, 2025 | Existing Home Sales |
| USD | Nov 25, 2025 | GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
| USD | Nov 26, 2025 | United States - Thanksgiving Day |
| USD | Nov 27, 2025 | Chicago PMI |
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What drives monthly changes in the US dollar exchange rate?
The USD dollar exchange rates shift monthly based on economic data, monetary policy, and global events. While some changes are minor, others can significantly impact international payments and investments.
Key factors behind monthly USD moves:
What drives monthly changes in the US dollar exchange rate?
The USD dollar exchange rates shift monthly based on economic data, monetary policy, and global events. While some changes are minor, others can significantly impact international payments and investments.
Key factors behind monthly USD moves:
Federal Reserve policy
Rate hikes or dovish signals can strengthen or weaken the dollar.
Inflation reports
Data like CPI and PPI shape expectations for interest rate changes.
Employment figures
Nonfarm payrolls and jobless rates reflect overall economic health.
GDP growth
Strong or weak economic performance affects USD sentiment.
How much can the US dollar move in a month?
The US foreign exchange rates can fluctuate by 1% to 3% against major currencies in a typical month. However, during periods of high volatility—such as interest rate hikes or geopolitical shocks—monthly movements may exceed 5%, especially against currencies like the Japanese yen or emerging market pairs.
These shifts directly impact the cost of international transactions, from sending money abroad to paying overseas suppliers. Staying informed on the USD forecast and understanding what drives these changes helps individuals and businesses make smarter financial decisions and manage currency risk more effectively.
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