Daily Currency Update

USD - US Dollar

Markets are relatively calm ahead of today's data releases. European stocks are up slightly, while US equity futures show mixed performance. Most major bond markets are down slightly, resulting in minor yield increases. The USD remains weak and appears vulnerable to further declines. The CA) and MXN are lagging behind other major currencies, trading flat against the USD, possibly due to investor caution regarding North American assets. This morning's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to reveal 180,000 job additions for October, with a Bloomberg "whisper" estimate of 204,000. The unemployment rate is forecasted to stay at 3.8%. While higher unemployment may grab market attention amid signs of a slowing US economy, the recent sentiment shift following FOMC decision suggests that the USD and yields are more sensitive to disappointing data. Furthermore, we will receive the final October services and composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data at 9:45 ET, followed by the ISM Services data at 10 ET. With FOMC members now able to freely share their opinions, we can expect a flood of comments in the coming days.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD is trading relatively flat in today's session. With slightly softer crude oil prices, no significant shift in risk appetite, and stable interest rate differentials, the CAD lacks clear direction ahead of this morning's data release. Canada's labor market report is anticipated to show a modest job gain of 25,000, a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.6% from September's 5.5%, and continued elevated wage growth at 5.2% year-on-year. The persistence of strong wage growth remains a key concern for policymakers and will keep the Bank of Canada vigilant against persistent inflationary pressures. Additionally, it's worth noting that the Canadian data landscape is expanding today with the introduction of new indicators, including the S&P Global Canada Services and Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs), which complement the Manufacturing PMI released earlier this week. Observe USD/CAD trends.

EUR - Euro

Germany posted a robust trade surplus of EUR 16.5 billion for September, yet export growth remains subdued with a month-on-month decline of -2.4%. Meanwhile, Eurozone unemployment inched up by one-tenth to 6.5%, slightly higher than the expected 6.4%. Surprisingly, these data points did not appear to have any discernible impact on the Euro, as it remained well-supported, trading in the low 1.06s during overnight trading.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP has made some overall gains during the session, holding a strong position above the 1.22 level. The UK's data releases showed minor upward adjustments in the October Services PMI (revised to 49.5) and Composite PMI (revised to 48.7). However, these data revisions had limited immediate effects on the pound's performance. It's worth noting that BoE's Pill is scheduled to speak at 8:15 ET.